I've been going through the various variants on the trap game over the last week, trying to understand how they work and how the versions work, but I've been having some problems. I'm a bit thick in the head sometimes and I have to chew over a thing like a cow chews its cud.
Eventually I just started to do what I do when my mind really refuses to wrap itself around an issue - I make pictures. This issue seemed to lend itself to a flowchart. I am a computer dude, so distilling a problem into a flowchart is something I'm trained to do. Don't try this at home. I'm a professional.
The blue shapes indicate the optimum path. The diamonds are decision points - whether to bump, grind, or whatnot. Each decision point has 4 answers, but only one right. So for "Guess 1" the player has a 25 percent chance to guess right, and a 75 percent chance to guess wrong. I follow the whole flowchart down, determining percentages. Each main decision gets a 'second chance,' as indicated by the Sticky column.
This, I think, is the basic system distilled. There are a lot of fancy add-ons, but I think that this is it at the core. Please let me know if I'm on the right track here.
My big worry was that the system seemed pretty hard to beat, even with second chances. My math indicated that there is a 6.25% chance of success, and a 93.75% chance of failure in the basic system. That's a tough nut to crack. So, if I've got this right, there would need to be other factors making some locks easier, and some characters more capable. I think there is a good library of these things available now, I just want to make sure that, at this point, I am on firm ground.
So, does this chart make sense?
(I updated the flowchart as I noticed a computational error. All fixed now.)